Midterm scenarios: Will Republicans take the Senate and House? | American News


AAs Americans head to the polls on Tuesday, they vote in what Joe Biden has touted as a vital test for American democracy against a Republican Party fielding candidates who buy into the big lie of a stolen 2020 election.

Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to capitalize on widespread economic anxiety over rising inflation, as well as fuel culture war themes and crime fears, often turning into racism and intolerance.

Millions of voters cast their ballots as Republicans and Democrats battle for control of Congress, many state governorships as well as many local offices and ballot initiatives on issues like abortion.

A handful of broad scenarios could play out, each of critical importance to the Biden presidency and the tactics of a resurgent Republican Party and its de facto leader Donald Trump.

Republicans win the House, Democrats take the Senate

In a split decision, expect Republicans to thwart Biden’s legislative agenda and launch a flurry of congressional investigations, for example into the botched military withdrawal from Afghanistan and President Hunter’s son’s business dealings in China. and in Ukraine. Trump ally Jim Jordan could take the lead.

A Republican majority would also condemn the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. They might even seek revenge by launching a counter-investigation on the telecommunications companies that turned over phone records to the committee or on the panel members themselves.

Politically, Republicans may seek to undo some major achievements of Biden’s first two years, such as climate spending, student loan cancellations and corporate tax increases.

Kevin McCarthy, the House Minority Leader and current favorite to become Speaker of the House, told Punchbowl News that Republicans would use a future battle to raise the national debt ceiling as leverage to force through government spending cuts. .

McCarthy also warned that the party would not write a “blank check” for Ukraine, while Marjorie Taylor Greene, expected to be a prominent figure in the Republican caucus, told a rally in Iowa: “Under the Republicans, not a penny will go to Ukraine. Our country comes first.

But a Democratic-controlled Senate would be able to continue approving Biden’s nominations for cabinet secretaries and federal judges.

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Republicans win House and Senate

Despite the polarization in Washington, Biden has so far won bipartisan victories on infrastructure, gun safety, veterans’ health benefits and manufacturing investments to compete with China. But Republicans would be less inclined to allow him further victories as the next presidential election approaches.

Instead, expect further antagonism between the White House and Congress. A Republican-controlled Senate could slow or block Biden’s judicial nominees, including in the event of an unexpected Supreme Court opening.

Conversely, Republican attempts to toughen rules on immigration, gun rights or ban transgender women from playing in women’s sports would surely be met with a presidential veto from Biden.

The Republican political agenda remains nebulous. Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate Minority Leader, resisted posting a platform, fueling criticism that the party has a personality cult around Trump.

Former President Barack Obama said at a recent rally in Atlanta, Georgia, “These days, right now, pretty much every Republican politician seems obsessed with two things: owning the libs and getting the endorsement by Donald Trump.

Rick Scott, chairman of the Republican National Senate Committee, released a 12-point plan that includes forcing the poorest Americans who currently don’t pay income tax to do so and reauthorizing Social Security and health insurance every five years instead of allowing programs to continue automatically. .

And Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina introduced a bill to create a nationwide 15-week abortion ban, dividing Republicans and infuriating progressive activists. If far-right members put it to a vote, Senate Democrats would be sure to obstruct it.

The White House, meanwhile, would be forced to go on the defensive against a slew of congressional investigations into Afghanistan, Hunter Biden and other targets.

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Democrats hold the House and Senate

It would be a huge surprise and defy historical trends. Pollsters would cry into their beer, fearing their industry was well and truly broken.

A Democratic sweep would mandate Joe Biden to pass a sweeping agenda that would again invite comparisons to former Presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson.

Biden said last month that if Democrats won control of Congress, the first bill he would send to Capitol Hill next year would codify Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision that overturned the constitutional right to abortion. The party could also push for national protections for same-sex marriage and the right to vote.

The president wants new measures on gun safety, including a ban on assault weapons. He could seek to resurrect elements of his Build Back Better agenda, including more climate action and expanding the social safety net, and make another attempt to tackle racial discrimination in policing.

And some Democrats are drafting legislation to block Trump from running for president in 2024 because of his instigation of the Jan. 6 insurrection, The New York Times reported, though that would be a long way off.

But everything will depend on the size – or the size – of the Democratic majority. If slender, conservative Democrats Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona could once again pull the strings and thwart the president’s ambitions.


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